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Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: lectures/unpleasant.md
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name: python3
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# Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic
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# Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic
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## Overview
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This lecture builds on concepts and issues introduced in our lecture on **Money Supplies and Price Levels**.
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That lecture describes stationary equilibria that reveal a **Laffer curve** in the inflation tax rate and the associated stationary rate of return
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That lecture describes stationary equilibria that reveal a [*Laffer curve*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve) in the inflation tax rate and the associated stationary rate of return
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on currency.
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In this lecture we study a situation in which a stationary equilibrium prevails after date $T > 0$, but not before then.
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b_t = \gamma_1 - \gamma_2 R_t^{-1} .
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$$ (eq:up_bdemand)
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where $\gamma_1 > \gamma_2 > 0$.
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## Monetary-Fiscal Policy
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To the basic model of our lecture on **Money Supplies and Price Levels**, we add inflation-indexed one-period government bonds as an additional way for the government to finance government expenditures.
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Just before the beginning of time $0$, the public owns $\check m_0$ units of currency (measured in dollars)
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and $\widetilde R \check B_{-1}$ units of one-period indexed bonds (measured in time $0$ goods); these two quantities are initial conditions set outside the model.
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Notice that $\check m_0$ is a **nominal** quantity, being measured in dollar, while
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$\widetilde R \check B_{-1}$ is a **real** quantity, being measured in time $0$ goods.
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Notice that $\check m_0$ is a *nominal* quantity, being measured in dollars, while
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$\widetilde R \check B_{-1}$ is a *real* quantity, being measured in time $0$ goods.
This equation says that the government (e.g., the central bank) can **decrease** $m_0$ relative to
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$\check m_0$ by **increasing** $B_{-1}$ relative to $\check B_{-1}$.
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This equation says that the government (e.g., the central bank) can *decrease* $m_0$ relative to
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$\check m_0$ by *increasing* $B_{-1}$ relative to $\check B_{-1}$.
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This is a version of a standard constraint on a central bank's **open market operations** in which it expands the stock of money by buying government bonds from the public.
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Here, by **fiscal policy** we mean the collection of actions that determine a sequence of net-of-interest government deficits $\{g_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ that must be financed by issuing to the public either money or interest bearing bonds.
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By **monetary policy** or **debt-management polcy**, we mean the collection of actions that determine how the government divides its portolio of debts to the public between interest-bearing parts (government bonds) and non-interest-bearing parts (money).
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By **monetary policy** or **debt-management policy**, we mean the collection of actions that determine how the government divides its portolio of debts to the public between interest-bearing parts (government bonds) and non-interest-bearing parts (money).
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By an **open market operation**, we mean a government monetary policy action in which the government
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(or its delegate, say, a central bank) either buys government bonds from the public for newly issued money, or sells bonds to the public and withdraws the money it receives from public circulation.
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## Algorithm (basic idea)
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We work backwards from $t=T$ and first compute $p_T, R_u$ associated with the low-inflation, low-inflation-tax-rate stationary equilibrium of our lecture on the dynamic Laffer curve for the inflation tax.
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We work backwards from $t=T$ and first compute $p_T, R_u$ associated with the low-inflation, low-inflation-tax-rate stationary equilibrium in {doc}`money_inflation_nonlinear`.
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To start our description of our algorithm, it is useful to recall that a stationary rate of return
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on currency $\bar R$ solves the quadratic equation
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Quadratic equation {eq}`eq:up_steadyquadratic` has two roots, $R_l < R_u < 1$.
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For reasons described at the end of **this lecture**, we select the larger root $R_u$.
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For reasons described at the end of {doc}`money_inflation`, we select the larger root $R_u$.
Figure {numref}`fig:unpl1` summarizes outcomes of two experiments that convey messages of
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Sargent and Wallace's **unpleasant monetarist arithmetic** {cite}`sargent1981`.
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{numref}`fig:unpl1` summarizes outcomes of two experiments that convey messages of {cite}`sargent1981`.
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* An open market operation that reduces the supply of money at time $t=0$ reduces the price level at time $t=0$
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* The lower is the post-open-market-operation money supply at time $0$, lower is the price level at time $0$.
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* An open market operation that reduces the post-open-market-operation money supply at time $0$ also **lowers** the rate of return on money $R_u$ at times $t \geq T$ because it brings a higher gross-of-interest government deficit that must be financed by printing money (i.e., levying an inflation tax) at time $t \geq T$.
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* An open market operation that reduces the post open market operation money supply at time $0$ also *lowers* the rate of return on money $R_u$ at times $t \geq T$ because it brings a higher gross of interest government deficit that must be financed by printing money (i.e., levying an inflation tax) at time $t \geq T$.
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* $R$ is important in the context of maintaining monetary stability and addressing the consequences of increased inflation due to government deficits. Thus, a larger $R$ might be chosen to mitigate the negative impacts on the real rate of return caused by inflation.
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