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Merge pull request #447 from QuantEcon/update_unpleasant
[unpleasant] Update editorial suggestions
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lectures/unpleasant.md

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name: python3
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---
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# Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic
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# Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic
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## Overview
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This lecture builds on concepts and issues introduced in our lecture on **Money Supplies and Price Levels**.
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That lecture describes stationary equilibria that reveal a **Laffer curve** in the inflation tax rate and the associated stationary rate of return
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That lecture describes stationary equilibria that reveal a [*Laffer curve*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve) in the inflation tax rate and the associated stationary rate of return
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on currency.
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In this lecture we study a situation in which a stationary equilibrium prevails after date $T > 0$, but not before then.
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b_t = \gamma_1 - \gamma_2 R_t^{-1} .
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$$ (eq:up_bdemand)
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where $\gamma_1 > \gamma_2 > 0$.
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## Monetary-Fiscal Policy
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To the basic model of our lecture on **Money Supplies and Price Levels**, we add inflation-indexed one-period government bonds as an additional way for the government to finance government expenditures.
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Just before the beginning of time $0$, the public owns $\check m_0$ units of currency (measured in dollars)
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and $\widetilde R \check B_{-1}$ units of one-period indexed bonds (measured in time $0$ goods); these two quantities are initial conditions set outside the model.
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Notice that $\check m_0$ is a **nominal** quantity, being measured in dollar, while
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$\widetilde R \check B_{-1}$ is a **real** quantity, being measured in time $0$ goods.
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Notice that $\check m_0$ is a *nominal* quantity, being measured in dollars, while
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$\widetilde R \check B_{-1}$ is a *real* quantity, being measured in time $0$ goods.
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### Open market operations
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B_{-1} - \check B_{-1} = \frac{1}{p_0 \widetilde R} \left( \check m_0 - m_0 \right)
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$$ (eq:openmarketconstraint)
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This equation says that the government (e.g., the central bank) can **decrease** $m_0$ relative to
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$\check m_0$ by **increasing** $B_{-1}$ relative to $\check B_{-1}$.
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This equation says that the government (e.g., the central bank) can *decrease* $m_0$ relative to
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$\check m_0$ by *increasing* $B_{-1}$ relative to $\check B_{-1}$.
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This is a version of a standard constraint on a central bank's **open market operations** in which it expands the stock of money by buying government bonds from the public.
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Here, by **fiscal policy** we mean the collection of actions that determine a sequence of net-of-interest government deficits $\{g_t\}_{t=0}^\infty$ that must be financed by issuing to the public either money or interest bearing bonds.
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By **monetary policy** or **debt-management polcy**, we mean the collection of actions that determine how the government divides its portolio of debts to the public between interest-bearing parts (government bonds) and non-interest-bearing parts (money).
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By **monetary policy** or **debt-management policy**, we mean the collection of actions that determine how the government divides its portolio of debts to the public between interest-bearing parts (government bonds) and non-interest-bearing parts (money).
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By an **open market operation**, we mean a government monetary policy action in which the government
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(or its delegate, say, a central bank) either buys government bonds from the public for newly issued money, or sells bonds to the public and withdraws the money it receives from public circulation.
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## Algorithm (basic idea)
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We work backwards from $t=T$ and first compute $p_T, R_u$ associated with the low-inflation, low-inflation-tax-rate stationary equilibrium of our lecture on the dynamic Laffer curve for the inflation tax.
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We work backwards from $t=T$ and first compute $p_T, R_u$ associated with the low-inflation, low-inflation-tax-rate stationary equilibrium in {doc}`money_inflation_nonlinear`.
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To start our description of our algorithm, it is useful to recall that a stationary rate of return
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on currency $\bar R$ solves the quadratic equation
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Quadratic equation {eq}`eq:up_steadyquadratic` has two roots, $R_l < R_u < 1$.
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For reasons described at the end of **this lecture**, we select the larger root $R_u$.
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For reasons described at the end of {doc}`money_inflation`, we select the larger root $R_u$.
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Next, we compute
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$$
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\begin{aligned}
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p_0 & = \gamma_1^{-1} \left[ \sum_{j=0}^\infty \lambda^j m_{1+j} \right] \cr
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p_0 & = \gamma_1^{-1} \left[ \sum_{j=0}^\infty \lambda^j m_{j} \right] \cr
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& = \gamma_1^{-1} \left[ \sum_{j=0}^{T-1} \lambda^j m_{0} + \sum_{j=T}^\infty \lambda^j m_{1+j} \right]
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\end{aligned}
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$$
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To compute an equilibrium, we deploy the following algorithm.
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Given **parameters** include $g, \check m_0, \check B_{-1}, \widetilde R >1, T $
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Given *parameters* include $g, \check m_0, \check B_{-1}, \widetilde R >1, T $.
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We define a mapping from $p_0$ to $p_0$ as follows.
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We define a mapping from $p_0$ to $\widehat p_0$ as follows.
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* Set $m_0$ and then compute $B_{-1}$ to satisfy the constraint on time $0$ **open market operations**
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## Example Calculations
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We'll set parameters of the model so that the steady state after time $T$ is initially the same
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as in our lecture on "Money and Inflation".
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as in {doc}`money_inflation_nonlinear`
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In particular, we set $\gamma_1=100, \gamma_2 =50, g=3.0$. We set $m_0 = 100$ in that lecture,
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but now the counterpart will be $M_T$, which is endogenous.
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def plot_path(m0_arr, model, length=15):
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fig, axs = plt.subplots(2, 2, figsize=(8, 5))
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titles = ['$p_t$', '$m_t$', '$b_t$', '$R_t$']
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for m0 in m0_arr:
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paths = simulate(m0, msm, length=length)
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axs[0, 0].plot(paths[0])
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axs[0, 0].set_title('$p_t$')
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axs[0, 1].plot(paths[1])
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axs[0, 1].set_title('$m_t$')
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axs[1, 0].plot(paths[2])
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axs[1, 0].set_title('$b_t$')
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axs[1, 1].plot(paths[3])
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axs[1, 1].set_title('$R_t$')
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axs[0, 1].hlines(model.m0_check, 0, length,
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color='r', linestyle='--')
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axs[0, 1].text(length*0.8, model.m0_check*0.9, '$\check{m}_0$')
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paths = simulate(m0, model, length=length)
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for i, ax in enumerate(axs.flat):
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ax.plot(paths[i])
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ax.set_title(titles[i])
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axs[0, 1].hlines(model.m0_check, 0, length, color='r', linestyle='--')
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axs[0, 1].text(length * 0.8, model.m0_check * 0.9, '$\check{m}_0$')
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plt.show()
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```
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plot_path([80, 100], msm)
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```
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Figure {numref}`fig:unpl1` summarizes outcomes of two experiments that convey messages of
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Sargent and Wallace's **unpleasant monetarist arithmetic** {cite}`sargent1981`.
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{numref}`fig:unpl1` summarizes outcomes of two experiments that convey messages of {cite}`sargent1981`.
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* An open market operation that reduces the supply of money at time $t=0$ reduces the price level at time $t=0$
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* The lower is the post-open-market-operation money supply at time $0$, lower is the price level at time $0$.
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* An open market operation that reduces the post-open-market-operation money supply at time $0$ also **lowers** the rate of return on money $R_u$ at times $t \geq T$ because it brings a higher gross-of-interest government deficit that must be financed by printing money (i.e., levying an inflation tax) at time $t \geq T$.
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* An open market operation that reduces the post open market operation money supply at time $0$ also *lowers* the rate of return on money $R_u$ at times $t \geq T$ because it brings a higher gross of interest government deficit that must be financed by printing money (i.e., levying an inflation tax) at time $t \geq T$.
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* $R$ is important in the context of maintaining monetary stability and addressing the consequences of increased inflation due to government deficits. Thus, a larger $R$ might be chosen to mitigate the negative impacts on the real rate of return caused by inflation.

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